Wisconsin -31 1.1% Free Play
Not many will be brave enough to lay this many points on the road, but I think Wisconsin won’t be satisfied to just get up big in this game. The coaches will be pointing to Michigan’s 28-0 early lead that slipped away making it a 28-25 game in the third quarter. I don’t see that with Wisconsin if anything they add to their lead. I’m not worried about the look ahead with Wisconsin to Ohio State. They were undefeated in 2017 with Ohio State on deck and won at Minnesota 31-0.
Illinois has gotten by and have hung in games because they have been able to win the turnover battle. They have been fortunate with a 70% fumble recovery rate, and they do have havoc on their defensive line with 18.9% havoc rate, but they haven’t faced many offensive lines like Wisconsin who rank among the nation’s best, 12th in power success rate, just 8.69% havoc rate allowed and that’s against a very tough opponent average rank of 16.87%.
Wisconsin should get some big running plays in this one as Illinois ranks 113th in 20+ rushes allowed, 117th in 10+ rushes allowed, and 81st in ypc, and that’s against an average offensive ranking of 96th. Wisconsin ranks 14th, against some good defenses. Illinois has allowed each of its last 3 opponents to go over 300 yards. I wonder what they might have expended against a physical Michigan team making that come back. I see Wisconsin continuing on their path of shutting teams out as they cover this game.
