Alabama -12.5 2.2% Free Play
I looked hard to find reasons to take the dog here, but just couldn't find them. Alabama is 6th against the run, and probably better than that when you factor in how many games their defense was just not trying because their offense put up 40+ points in the first half. When Tua came into the game last year it was just a different game as Alabama went on a 26-10 run on their way to a come back victory. This year's Georgia is just as good on offense if not better, but they lack some of the senior laden leadership, and their defense is not nearly as good ranking 46th vs. the run, and 62nd in defensive success rating. Alabama is #1 in offense and defensive success rate and a ridiculous 27.2 % success rate differential. Compare that with Georgia who is at 11.4%. To impact this game Georgia needs to get after Tua, and we have seen him make mistakes, but Georgia ranks 118th in sack % this year against teams that don't protect the QB well, and Alabama's offensive line has been a rock. This is a high total, and I expect a cover by Alabama winning by 20+ points.
