It almost feels like UCF is a dog here.  I like the bump we are going to get from UCF's team here with a ton of play for. Not only are they going to be coming out to play for their fallen QB Milton, but they are playing for a second undefeated season in a row. Everyone is saying Milton is worth 7 points, but I'm not buying that and I think there is a ton of value here on UCF at -3. Darriel Mack is not the passer that Milton was there is no question, but he's a much better runner, and gives this UCF offense something different for Memphis to defend. Mack is extremely athletic and has 281 yards rushing on only 40 carries. That's over 7 yards per carry. Memphis won't have a passing game either so all this talk about Mack not being able to throw very well does not worry me, because UCF's pass defense and pass rush is so much better than Memphis that it will even out.

Memphis rushing offense and defense completely different in their home/away splits. They average 1.88 yards per carry less on the road, and allow .97 yards per carry more. Last time I checked UCF actually has the better rushing team here ranking 8th, but faced a tougher schedule now they add in a dynamic running QB, and Memphis could be in a bit of trouble here on the road.

Home field advantage is another great equalizer and I think the fans are going to be jacked up for this one. When we look at the strength of schedule UCF has faced an average defense ranking 65.2 in ypp, compared to Memphis at 85.63. THeir defenses are also pretty similar but again UCF faced an average ypp offense 60.4, compared to MEmphis 73.09 rank. Another thing many are not talking about is UCF ranks 2nd in TO margin, and it's a big part of their defense compare that with Memphis who ranks 59th. There is also a special teams advantage here as UCF ranks 62nd compared to Memphis 112th rank and finally red zone defense. Memphis allowing over 70% red zone trips to turn into TD's, while UCF is allowing 50%, UCF also not giving up a ton of explosive plays ranking 53rd in explosive defense compared to Memphis ranking 86th.