Both teams rely on the running game 58% of the time, and need to in a game like this where the weather will be a factor. Buffalo is just better at the line of scrimmage as Toledo #121 in stopping the run, and that's against a weak schedule facing teams who on average rank 72.6 in rushing yards per carry. Buffalo comes into this game ranked 41st in rushing yards per carry leaning heavily on two freshman backs. On the flip side Toledo 44th in rushing yards per carry, but they're going up against a Buffalo run defense that ranks 50th. Although Buffalo has faced an easy schedule in terms of rushing attacks they faced ranking on average 87th they have gotten the job done, and their pass defense is even better.

At some point these two teams are going to have to put the ball in the air, and extreme advantage Buffalo when you factor in Buffalo's 15th ranked pass defense vs. Toledo's 103rd ranked defense. I spoke about controlling the line of scrimmage. Well Buffalo 1st in sack % allowed going up against the Toledo's pass rush defense that is 125th in sack %. Buffalo ranks 33rd in sack % going up against a Toledo 118th sack % allowed. There is a reason why Toledo ranks 74th in TO margin per game and Buffalo is 27th, another advantage to Buffalo.

Finally, these two had one common game in Eastern Michigan. Buffalo won by a TD at home and they were +1.25 yards per play, +9% success rate while Toledo played last week were down 28-3 at one point and Eastern Michigan lost their QB in the 2nd Q, allowing Toledo to get back in that game in misleading fashion. They were -1.99 yards per play, -8% success rate