Oklahoma -20.5 1.1% Free Play
This line opened up at -24, and has dropped down to a point where I think there is value on the heavy favorite. I have said Oklahoma is a team you could fade this year in LIncoln Riley's second year, but this is the type of game I think they may want to come out and blow out Florida Atlantic. FAU is getting a lot of credit here and actually taking a good % of the bets with some even calling for a possible upset, because Lane Kiffin is there and they won 10 straight games a year ago, and finished 10-3-1 ATS.
10-3-1 ATS to me means we are going to have value fading FAU and the line is already giving us 3.5 points of value. I actually looked back at non-power 5 schools and head coaches in their second year and FAU is in a major fade spot. Teams with coaches in their second year at a non-power five school following 9 or more wins ATS have gone a combined 14-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. FAU is also returning just 5 starters on the offense from last year and they are breaking in a new QB and they will have to face an Oklahoma defense that should be much better in 2018.
Oklahoma meanwhile I have mentioned that I don't trust Kyler Murray, but in a game against a C-USA opponent I see no problem with this offense putting up huge #'s. last year against UTEP & Tulane, Oklahoma scored 56 points. The Big 12 has outscored the C-USA by 22 points on average over 40+ games since 2010. There is obviously a big talent gap, this game is at Oklahoma, and Oklahoma is very motivated to prove that their offense won't miss a beat without Baker, and that their defense is better and they are still the team to beat in 2018.
