Villanova is the better team, but with this game being on the road it's a little more evena nd I don't see 12 points being enough to separate these two teams. First of all the strength of schedules have been very similar only Depaul has had the #1 toughest schedule in Big East play while Nova has had the 9th toughest. Nova's main strategy is to get open looks from 3 while they have taken 40% of their shots and it did them well shooting 13-29 from 3 at home vs. Depaul which I don't see happening again as Depaul is ranked 28th overall in 3 point defense. Both of these teams are rather similar ranking in top 100 shooting the 3 and top 30 in defending it and I think Depaul will have greater success here today shooting and defending. When you look at home away splits Depaul is shooting it 39.2 % from beyond the arch and defending at 26.5 while Nova is a bit worse 34.3 vs. 29.4.
Depaul has been a good team at home already beating St. Johns, Xavier, Marquette, a good Stanford team and they lost by 6 to Georgetown who Nova lost to by 20. I wouldn't be shocked to see Depaul win this game, but my money is on them to keep this game within single digits.
On paper this game looks like Northern Iowa could really steal it when you consider they do some things really well defending and shooting the ball, but so does Wichita State. The thing Northern Iowa will struggle with is on ball defense as they are not top 100 in handling the ball or defending the ball by forcing turnovers and Wichita is in top 35 for both categories. Wichita State is also 31st in rebounding % and it has carried over onto the road while Northern Iowa struggles at 100th. This is a big conference game and I think the more talented team comes out in front. Northern Iowa is facing the 26th ranked adjusted defense and their strength of schedule indicates they rank 180th in defenses they've faced and I expect them to struggle.
We backed Creighton in their last match up at home vs. St. Johns and it paid dividends. Today we look to back them again as they have had a tough time in the Big East but finally winning their first game. Georgetown has not been a good road team and they have less experience than Creighton and that's why I'm going to fade them here. Creighton lost in the first match up but Georgetown shot the ball 58.7% while Creighton was just at 30.8%. I think they just had a bad day and now they will look to turn that around and when you consider they were +10 FTA and +9 in rebounds their is a lot to like about Creighton to get revenge here on Georgetown today.
