74-31 (70.5%) +119.09 units of profit! (+$119,095)
Harden vs. Volstad here a pair of pitchers moving in opposite directions. Volstad 2-1 with a 4.42ERA in his last three and Harden 2-0 with a .53Whip and .95 ERA. If you know anything about Harden it is that when he gets hot he is one of the best RH pitchers in the game. Right now he is hot and it's because he has found his control. Just 2BB over his last 3 starts. He pitched at home where he has struggled all year against the Marlins and went just 3.2 IP gave up 6H and 4BB and 5ER. By the way the Cubs still won that game despite walking 9 batters that day.
More on Harden here because I absolutely find value on him here today. He does have a 2.03ERA on the road and a 2.23 ERA at night this year. In his last 3 road starts he has a .90ERA over 20IP. I expect a dominant performance here on Friday as he had a 1.76ERA against the Marlins prior to his poor performance in May. The Marlins have not been killing the ball either vs. RHP they have a .255 avg over their last 5 games with a BP ERA of 5.51. I'm pretty sure they are going to need the bullpen against a Cubs offense that is just on fire averaging 8 runs a game over their last 5 games with their own BP of 3.18. Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite and 14-3 overall the last 17 as a favorite -110 to -150. They are 6-1 in Hardens last 7 starts of Game 1's getting the Cubs off to a nice start.
Marlins Volstad has pitched decently but at home over his last 4 starts he has given up 17 ER in 20.2 now facing arguably one of the hottest hitting teams I'm taking my money and putting it on the Cubs with the better offense and better pitcher here tonight with some good value to boot. Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and they are 4-13 in their last 17 as a home dog.
Again whenever you have a hot pitcher and a hot offense vs. a cold pitcher and a just okay offense right now it's wise to take the run line as a small backup. I like it mainly because the Cubs have won 76% of their road wins by more than 1 run while the Marlins have lost 80% of their home losses by more than 1 run. It is a recipe for success here today.
