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Too much is being said about the Angels struggles against the Red Sox in the post season. This is a very different Angels team than the one the Red Sox are used to playing. The same could be said of the Red Sox as they just aren't the same type of team. In fact the Red Sox are under .500 on the road this year at 39-42. They will have their best pitcher this season in Jon Lester out on the mound here tonight facing off against Lackey who the Angels are just 3-14 in their last 17 vs. him. This stat is completely misleading in my opinion because he has pitched well despite pitching @ Boston 8 of his last 10 match ups. This time he'll have the liberty of pitching at home.
All 3 of his wins have come in the last 10 match ups despite having 8 of those 10 as quality starts. In fact Lackey has a 2.67 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Red Sox. He started just once this year @ Boston he went 7.2 IP and gave up 2 ER. Lackey has nearly 60 innings of post season work with a 3.39 ERA and I expect him to pitch a solid game here tonight. This is not the same Red Sox team he has had to face in the past although they are still solid offensively they do not hit righties nearly as well especially on the road where they have a .249 average (-.25 from lefties) and are scoring 4.41 runs per 9 innings (-.97 from lefties). Red Sox struggle against good home teams as they are 3-15 in their last 18 road games vs. team with a winning % of .600 or greater. They are 5-16 in their last 21 road vs. a team with a winning record overall. So their road record of 39-42 is not nearly what it should be as many of their losses have come against quality opponents like the Angels.
Going for the Red Sox is Jon Lester who the Angels have got to be licking their chops. Lester although pitched 14 scoreless innings against the Angels in the post season has had his struggles on the west coast this year and against the Angels. He has not faced the Angels this year, and they have a collective .364 average that's including Abreu and not including Morales who has not faced him. Those are two key ingredients that are going to make this a different time around for LA. Angels are much improved offensively from teams in the past who could not hit the ball now their hitting is what carries this team over the pitching. LA is scoring +.32 runs per 9 innings vs. LHP than they are against RHP at home this year. They are 22-6 in their last 28 as a home dog, and 12-5 in their last 17 vs. LH starter including another run of 35-16 in their last 51 vs. LH starters. Again I mentioned before Lester with an ERA exactly a run higher on the road than home with 3.86 is still solid, but his two starts out on the west coast against Oakland and Seattle did not go well. He gave up 11 ER on 18 hits and 4 HR in 11.2 IP. In fact Lester on the road this year gave up 15 HR compared to the 5 HR he gave up at home. If this game is in Boston I see it completely different with the under, but I think Lester is going to struggle against the Angels who can hit fast balls and they will steal on Lester who gave up 19 stolen bases this year which some say is not that many, but in my opinion for a lefty that is a lot. Look for the Angels #3 in steals to take advantage of the Red Sox weak catching arms throughout this series.
The Over is 10-2 the last 12 times boston was a favorite and 16-5 in their last 21 game 1's. Angels over 7-3 in Lackey's L10 home games.
The story is that the Angels can't beat the Red Sox I think that goes away very fast here tonight giving the Angels the win over the Red Sox in what will set up the series very well for LA.
