Phillies look to stay hot as they go on the road to face the Reds who gave us an early bird winner yesterday in extra innings. Phillies should be well rested and though the Reds are #2 in OPS vs. LHP which they will face in Cole Hamels on Monday I'll tell you why I still like the Phillies today. First of all the quality of LHP that the Reds have faced has not been there and not to often. This team has under 1000 AB's vs. LHP this year that's the least in the majors. Think about that most full time MLB players will have 500 AB themselves in a season and the Reds have only seen LHP 930 times in 2011. They've faced a lefty just 4 times in their last 27 games and those starters have been Ross Detwiler twice and WAndy Rodriguez and Wade Leblanc. The last 2 quality pitchers at Cole Hamels level they faced were David Price and Clayton Kershaw who combined for 15.2 IP and 3 ER or a 1.72 ERA. Hamels has arguably having a better year than both of those lefties and he's dominated the Reds in his career 9-0 with a 1.23 ERA. He's also got a 2.82 ERA on the road and 6-2 record while Homer Bailey has a 4.66 ERA at home and vs. the Phillies he has a 7.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 4 career start. The meat of the Reds line up Phillips, Renteria, Votto and Stubbs have a combined 12-75 with a .160 average vs. Hamels. Phillies have a .804 OPS combined vs. Bailey. Reds are just 2-9 in their last 11 vs. NL East with Bailey on the mound while the Phillies are 16-6 in their last 22 vs. RH starter. Reds also have a 5.28 bullpen over their last 10 games and that's been the main issue with this team and we saw it in extra innings on Sunday despite them pitching well we saw manager Dusty Baker hesitate with his bullpen in that game. Phillies are 29-11 in their last 40 vs. the NL Central with Hamels on the mound and their bullpen is plenty rested and their offense is plenty good of late hitting .277 over their last 10 games with 5.77 runs per 9 overall.
Love the Rays despite looking at the edge the Jays have in the pitching match up with Ricky Romero who has been dominant going today. Romero though faces a team that has been red hot hitting LHP. They are 7th with a .756 OPS while the Jays continue their fall vs. RHP all year long as they are ranked 16th with a .715 vs. RHP. Wade Davis has had success in his career 6 starts with a 2.93 ERA vs. the Jays. Jose Bautista is 2-16 off him and the Rays Zobrist, Longoria, and Damon are 18-50 vs. Romero with 2 HR. Romero has given up a home run in all of his last 4 starts vs. the Rays and the Rays are scoring 7.24 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 5 with a 2.08 bullpen the Jays .209 4.03 vs. RHP and 7.71 bullpen over their last 5, .197 in their last 10 games vs. RHP. Rays on the road this year are hitting .263 with 5.25 runs per 9 vs. LHP and are 13-2 in their last 15 road starts vs. a losing team and 23-7 in their last 30 games overall vs. a losing team and are 6-1 in their last 7 visits to Toronto.
