This is probably my most in depth analysis.  The last few days of bowl season have been rough and I’m ready to turn it around.  Many have been unpredictable because of turnovers for instance the last 5 teams I’ve backed on the spread have turned the ball over a combined 19 times and I haven’t won the turnover battle once.  We did cash in on our big late play last night with an easy under in the Texas/Cal game though and we look for that to continue on Thursday with our package in the Champs Bowl Florida State vs. Notre Dame at 5:30pm et.


I’m taking Notre Dame and the Under here today.  I’ll make two general statements before I get into my full in depth analysis.  Notre Dame has had a stronger strength of schedule with better defenses, and 12 division 1 teams while Florida State has had the weaker schedule along with 1 FCS opponent.  Both teams can throw the ball and both teams can play defense. 
 
This should be the best game of the young bowl season in my opinion and I think what many are not concentrating on is the Notre Dames under rated defense.  But before we go there Notre Dame could be the most balanced team Florida State has faced all year.  Their only glaring weakness is the turnovers, but they have cleaned those up since starting the season with 15 in their first 4 games.  Florida State gets turnovers by getting pressure, but Notre Dame has allowed just 13 sacks all year behind an experienced line that has faced 5 of the top 20 sack % teams including #1.  I think that experience should go a long way in this game in which they’ll be rotating in two QB’s to keep FSU on their heels.
 
  Florida State has played two balanced offenses this year Oklahoma and Clemson and in both they failed giving up 23 and 35 points.  Statistically speaking Notre Dame has better defenses than both of those teams too.  On the flip side has Notre Dame played a team with a defense this good?  The answer absolutely as this team has faced 7 top 50 defenses this year and two in the top 10 in scoring defense in which they put 31 points up on both Michigan and Michigan State.  Speaking of balance Florida State does not have it on offense and I really think they struggle to move the ball because of Notre Dame’s experience and under rated defense.
 
Florida State is in real trouble mainly because their offensive line is the reason they can’t run and the reason they haven’t been more explosive down the stretch.  They could start as many as 4 true freshmen on the line and 17 year old Bobby Hart will start.  It’s the reason this team gave up 35 sacks this year one of the worst in the nation.  Florida State’s rushing offense ranked 99th overall and averaged just 3.47 yards per carry goes up against Notre Dame which is 47th allowing 3.9 ypc and they allowed 3.67 on the road this year.  Florida State could not run on 4 teams Oklahoma, Clemson, Miami or Florida who were all ranked similarly to Notre Dame 42nd, 68th, 53rd, and 13th in ypc run defense.  Now lets get to EJ Manuel he’s been fantastic and the game goes into his hands without a doubt as he goes up against a secondary led by 4 seniors.  That’s the problem here Manuel faced on average a 65th ranked pass defense in terms of QB rating + an FCS foe.  His losses came against 28, 46, 52, 40th ranked pass defenses and Notre Dame’s 51st, but what’s hidden here is Notre Dames ability to force teams to dink and dunk down the field and they’re excellent at making tackles.  They’re ranked 23rd with 6.4 yards per attempts.  The only team better was Florida ranked 11th and we saw how Manuel was exposed in that game.  The next best was Oklahoma 42nd, Wake 46th, and Virginia 56th from Florida State’s schedule and you guessed it FSU lost all of those.  The reason I bring it up is because that’s the only advantage statistically that Manuel has over Tommy Rees he’s getting his play makers to make plays he’s got +1.2 yards per attempt, but in this game that should be even and FSU does not have a consistent passing game or a go to WR like Rees has in the All American Michael Floyd.
 
Notre Dame’s offense has been inconsistent at times, and they’ll have to go to the air in this one to score points against Florida State’s 2nd ranked run defense but it’s not like they haven’t been in this spot before.  Notre Dame is ranked 20th averaging 5.0 yds per carry that will be the best opponent that Florida State has faced all year as on average they face teams that can not run ranked 73rd on average.  That doesn’t mean they can’t stop it all I’m saying is Notre Dame is big and experienced up front and they’ll have more balance than Florida State on offense.  Tommy Rees has been prone to throw a pick or fumble the ball that’s got to be the key here because I’m confident he’ll have a better game than EJ Manuel.  These two teams have3 common opponents Maryland, BC, and Wake Forest who Florida State lost to 30-35 while Notre Dame beat 24-17 both at Wake.  Rees was 68-101 67%, 718 yds 4TD 3 interceptions in those 3 games while Emanuel was 55-88 62.5% 759 yards 4 TD and 5 interceptions.  Rees will have balance and a better offensive line and he also has Michael Floyd and his TE to make quick throws to.
 
Special Teams and other intangibles.  Special teams edge clearly goes to Florida State their punter is the best in America and they have speed in the return game but don’t sleep on Notre Dame’s George Atkinson who is a legitimate threat with 2 TD’s on returns. I think this all gets washed out with Florida State being the worst in the country committing penalties with 8.17 per game.  That should stall any kind of drives they have going in this one and I like that as a factor to lean towards the under in this one.  Also not really an intangible, but Notre Dame’s offense is more efficient and consistent especially on 3rd down where they have converted 46.54% for the season 47% on the road and 46.7% over their last 4 games , Florida State is at 40%, 33% on the road and 26% in their last 4 games.  That’s what you get when you don’t have balance.  Defensively FSU is slightly better 33.88% to 35.09%. Same goes for the red zone.  Notre Dame is 69% overall while FSU is 58% and defensively they’re just about even 56.25% to 58.97%.  Notre Dame has more ability to get into the end zone and they have just as much if not more ability to keep FSU out because FSU can’t run the ball.  Also note the strength of schedule that comes into play here we mentioned a few times and again the same is true. Notre Dame’s schedule stacked with red zone defenses.  At the end of the day this is a game where Notre Dame plays with the lead for most of the game in what will be a low scoring game.  The under is 11-3 in Notre Dame’s last 14 vs. the ACC and 18-7-1 in their last 26 on grass while FSU is under the total in 16 of their last 21 games as a favorite.

Where to find Freddy?