Indiana beat Minnesota by 7 points at home when the two were still in the top 10. Now Indiana is clearly the #1 team but they are going on the road after just defeating Michigan State. Minnesota is a desperate team playing for their NCAA Tourney lifes. Indiana is full of confidence and they should be having just beat Michigan State on the road. However, I think there might be one more stop in the Gophers. They beat Wisconsin and Michigan State at home why not Indiana?
In the first match up they were -25 FTA and -3 rebounds. They also allowed Indiana to shoot 50.9% from the field. Getting back to playing at home should allow them to improve on those numbers where they are +16.1 ppg. Minnesota is also holding opponents to 37.6% from the field and is +13 in rebound margin +8.2 in FT attempts. This games comes down to defense inside the arch where both teams take 70% of their shots. Both are ranked in the top 30 in the nation in 2 point defense. Minnesota however allows opponents just 40.2% in home games while Indiana is allowing 43.7%. Offensively Minnesota is also playing better inside the arch in the home/away splits. Stats are not everything but I think it's enough to justify getting 5.5 points. I think there is a lot of value on a desparate Minnesota team here tonight and I think they will capitalize and have a chance to win the game.
