I like the Braves, and the value is right. When you look at the odds and the match up you see that the Braves have not hit any better vs. RHP than the Mets have overall or on the home/away splits and the bullpens are pretty comparable about the same "statistically." So you could argue that the Mets are the value here, but the Mets really are not a good team and are 28-62 in their last 90 games at home as an under dog. I can't seem them winning again tonight after their walk off last night which they felt the need to celebrate. I get the season is a grind and you need to celebrate those things, but that's the mentality of this Mets team and it's a huge issue why they have been struggling to win games in their own ball park since Citi Field arrived.

Next the starting match ups is a complete mismatch. Yes Julio Teheran has a 3.45 ERA on the road compared with Jacob Degrom's ERA in the 2's at home, but these stats are misleading. Teheran had 1 bad start all year and it came on 4 days rest in Colorado who is also #1 in OPS vs. RHP (Mets are 25th). Take that start out and Teheran has a 2.68 ERA on the road and he's also got a 1.56 ERA on 5 days rest which he has here. Teheran also has a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts vs. the Mets and is walking 2 batters less per 9 innings than Degrom. The Braves offense and bullpen are a bit hotter over their last 5 games which I also like to look at considering baseball players are streaky.

Where to find Freddy?