Every year we try to identify some over valued College Football teams, and it typically starts with the AP TOP 10. If you just simply fade the AP TOP 10 you WILL lose money. Nothing is ever quite that easy, but we broke it down with situational spots where we feel it makes logical sense to find an edge.
Here is a look at the top ten college football teams according to pre-season AP poll for the 2022 college football season:
The idea behind this theory is that we will catch betting value fading these teams, because the casual bettor is going to want to back them. The other idea is that the AP poll is not ranking these teams on a betting strength. Vegas will set numbers, and often disagree with these power rankings, and that is when the public feels like they are getting a great deal, or sure thing. We can recognize those betting patterns to our advantage.
Full Season ATS
2012 - 56-71 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2013 - 58-62 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2014 - 64-71 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2015 - 61-72 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2016 - 66-63 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2017 - 70-61 ATS (7 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2018 - 58-65 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2019 - 74-55 ATS (9 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2020 - 60-50 ATS (5 out of 10 had a winning ATS records)
2021 - 68-64 ATS (7 out of 10 had a winning ATS record)
Over the past 10 seasons the overall record of fading the AP TOP 10 is about .500 or Overall record was 635-634 ATS. We have really seen a rally the last 3 seasons where the AP TOP 10 have dominted and covered 54.4% of their games. I would argue that these teams are now aware of the spread much more than previous seasons, and style points certainly matter, and teams are looking to cover the spread late in the season, which is why we have seen a higher cover % among the top 10, and it usually comes from the teams in the mix for the playoff spots. It's also been long documented that the top head coaches are covering closer to 58%, and again it makes sense, because those teams are able to pile on for style oints when they need to. When you take those top coaches out you can find an edge. This year's candidates would have to be Oklahoma, Baylor, Michigan, Notre Dame all of which do not have top ATS covering coaches, or really unknown commodities.
Home Favorites ATS
There is no significant adavantage here, and last year these home favorites went 35-26 ATS.
Away Favorites ATS
Away Favorites have gone 187-180. We often see these top teams play their top players with a reduced depth chart for road games, and the good coaches seem to really rally their teams.
1st 3 Games ATS
If you blindly fade the pre-season top 10 in their first 3 games you would hit 57% ATS. Early in the season is the best time to fade these teams, because once they lose or once Vegas has better numbers on them the line is sharper. 9 of the last 10 seasons had a losing record, and when we take out 2017 18-11 ATS anomaly the stats are overwhelming with a record of 107-155 ATS for a 59.1% ATS record just for fading the top 10 in their first 3 games. The record was even better when they were playing a non power 5 school.
Overall out of a total of 100 teams only 37 had a winning record ATS in their first 3 games of the season. If we blindly fade all 10 teams this year in their first 3 games we would have a 63% chance of going .500 or better. Really need to dig deeper to see what these teams do after a win ATS, because I feel like more and more people would want to back them so week 2 after a team is 1-0 ATS and in the pre season AP top 10 is something to look at.
