Here is a look at the top ten college football teams according to pre-season AP poll for the 2020 college football season:
The idea behind this theory is that we will catch betting value fading these teams, because the casual bettor is going to want to back them. The other idea is that the AP poll is not ranking these teams on a betting strength. Vegas will set numbers, and often disagree with these power rankings, and that is when the public feels like they are getting a great deal, or sure thing. We can recognize those betting patterns to our advantage. I dug deep on this over the last 9 years to see how the pre-season top 10 did overall, and then narrowed it down into different categories where we could really take advantage.
Full Season ATS
2012 - 56-71 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2013 - 58-62 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2014 - 64-71 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2015 - 61-72 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2016 - 66-63 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2017 - 70-61 ATS (7 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2018 - 58-65 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2019 - 74-55 ATS (9 out of 10 had winning ATS records)
2020 - 60-50 ATS (5 out of 10 had a winning ATS records)
Overall record was 567-570 ATS which is just about 50% ATS in a 1,000+ sample, which is not very good, and shows no advantage. It seems that the AP has gotten better the last two years, but last year was also a bit weird considering it was a shortened season. However, again when you take out the top coaches like Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney, Ryan Day who combined for 58% winners the record changes quite a bit, and that has always been the case. This year is tough, because we do have some very good coaches in the Ap Top 10 who are not normally in the Top 10 AP poll, Iowa State, Northwestern, and Cincinnati.
Home Favorites ATS
Over the past 7 years, home favorites have gone 252-283 ATS which is right around 52.9% if you fade them blindly, which is literally no advantage, where I think we are getting any type of line value.
Away Favorites ATS
170-160 ATS which is too close to 50%, and you will see that these teams often step up in this situation, especially the ones with good coaches. The last two seasons these teams have gone 64% ATS 47-26, so it's worth keeping a close eye on this in the future.
1st 3 Games ATS
If you blindly fade the pre-season top 10 in their first 3 games you would hit 56.1% ATS. Early in the season is the best time to fade these teams, because once they lose or once Vegas has better numbers on them the line is sharper. 8 of the last 9 seasons had a losing record, and when we take out 2017 18-11 ATS anomaly the stats are overwhelming with a record of 97-136 ATS for a 58.3% ATS record just for fading the top 10 in their first 3 games. The record was even better when they were playing a non power 5 school.
Overall out of a total of 90 teams only 34 had a winning record ATS in their first 3 games of the season. If we blindly fade all 10 teams this year in their first 3 games we would have a 62% chance of going .500 or better. Really need to dig deeper to see what these teams do after a win ATS, because I feel like more and more people would want to back them so week 2 after a team is 1-0 ATS and in the pre season AP top 10 is something to look at.
