This line has dropped more than 4 points since opening and can be found at -3.5 in majority of books.. It's too much value now on the side of Florida State who is 1-6 ATS on the year. Perception is that they are not as good as last year yet they still have the best QB in the land behind 4 returning offensive linemen and they have put up 30+ points in all 6 of his starts this year, some against some top defenses. Coming off a bye where they won a close won against Notre Dame should help as Winston just lit it up at the end of that game. I think the offense gets better here and the defense as well. Remember off a bye last year they went to Clemson and won 51-14.

Here comes Louisville with the #1 defense by far. However, they have only played one team ranked inside the top 60 in yards per play and that was Miami in the first week of the season. Louisville has not faced a top 50 passing attack from a QB rating perspective since Miami and MIami has come a long way since their loss to Louisville. Winston and Florida State is just a different monster that I don't think Louisville can win. For one their offensive line has been terrible ranked 122nd in pass protection and 113th in yards per carry. You better put up 30 points against the Seminoles if you are going to have any shot at winning. The strength of Louisville has been the passing game, but that falls right into the strength of Florida State's defense with two 1st round draft picks at corner in PJ Williams and Ronald Darby who have yet to play up to their potential.

This game is all about where people think Florida State is.. they have had over a week to hear how they are not as good and how they were lucky to beat Notre Dame. I see this game being close late and that's just a situation I don't see that Louisville is experienced enough to win. Florida State has needed some heroics in 4 of their last 8 games late in the game either 4th quarter or OT so they are very much used to it. Jameis Winston has a 194.57 QB rating in the 4th quarter.

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