I'll take Iowa who is an amazing 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games following a SU loss. That is purely on coaching and their is a reason why Kirk Ferentz has been at Iowa forever. Illinois is 6-16 ATS int heir last 22 conference games and actually beat Minnesota in their last home game, the same team that Iowa just got blasted by 51-14. This line would have been -7 or so if Iowa did not lay an egg on the road last season and they need a win here to get into a decent bowl game. Illinois is in a difficult spot here coming off a bye they are starting their QB Wes Lunt who has ridiculous passing numbers, but he has not played since October 4th.
Somehow Lunt has avoided every top pass defense on the schedule. His 5 starts have been against pass defense that are all outside the top 75 with the addition of an FCS opponent. Lunt has not played in over a month and now he has to come back to face Iowa who is 2nd in passing yards allowed and top 10 in every other pass defense category. Illinois does not have a running game to lean on like the other teams that Iowa has struggled against on their schedule. Illinois running offense and defense is -3.7 yards per carry in conference play. They allow over 6.5 and have rushed for just 3.07 in conference play. Iowa will bounce back again here. When they lose it's usually turnovers that hurt them with -5 in losses +4 in wins. Their last two road games produced 6 turnovers against Maryland and Minnesota. Both those teams are very good at forcing turnovers with 27 in their home games combined. Illinois is -8 in turnover margin and has forced only 6 in 5 conference games. Illinois is also very poor in red zone defense allowing 75% red zone TD percentage to conference foes while Iowa is averaging 70% in conference play. The running game and play action over the top to the TE's will allow Iowa to control and dominate this game.
Both teams are off a bye here and I'll take North Carolina, a team that is much more experienced than Pitt. Pitt's team is one of the youngest in the country and it's starting to show late. The bye will certainly help, but they will be on the road against UNC who is also coming off the bye.
Pitt is allowing 5.68 ypc in their losses on the ground and 2.15 in their wins. The only opponents they allowed to rush under 4 yards per carry are ranked 88th or worse. North Carolina features a dual threat QB in Marquise Williams and Pitt just has not seen a player like him all year long. Pitt's run defense has been an issue in conference play and it's carried over to their red zone defense where they are allowing a 70% TD percentage. UNC may not have much of a defense, but they can certainly come up with a few stops and win the TO margin in this one as Pitt's defense has only forced 11 TO"s on the year and are -6.
