Since West Virginia has joined the Big 12, November has not been a good month with Dana Holgorsen going 2-8. Kansas State and Bill Snyder hold a significant advantage in coaching and the fact that both teams have 11 days to prepare gives me a strong lean towards Bill Snyder and Kansas State coming off a big loss. This is a perfect opportunity and I really like what the captains have been saying in the media about their opportunity to get over that loss to TCU. Kansas State is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 following a SU loss of 20+ points, and they are 15-3 ATS (83% ANGLE!!) in their last 18 following a SU loss all together. Here is the coaching mismatch though... Dana Holgorsen since joining the Big12 with West Virginia is 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS with extra preparation. He clearly does not know how to get his players prepared for games with extra rest. His only 2 wins were when they were 4 TD+ favorites and he's had numerous fails as a home favorite. Bill Snyder on the other hand is 7-1 SU & ATS during that same time period with his only loss vs. a nasty and athletic Oregon team in a bowl game.
Extra preparation and trends are not enough to just write in a W for the Wildcats so I took it deeper. Both teams have won when they can run the ball and stop the run. Both have had success stopping the run in conference play when they have faced vanilla rushing offenses, but have struggled vs. teams with a running QB. Kansas State has the running QB in Waters and the blocking to go with it while West Virginia does not. West Virginia is giving up 4.72 ypc on the year in conference play. Meanwhile Kansas State has really only struggled in run defense twice. Against Oklahoma and TCU which feature more dynamic rushing offenses than West Virginia. Similarly their rushing offense has only been stopped 3 times. All 3 of those oppoennts ranked inside the top 50 in stopping the run (Auburn, Texas, and TCU), while West Virginia ranks 97th. They've given up 5.90 yards per carry in losses and 3.70 in wins.
I took it a step further and looked at Trickett and Waters both veteran QB's at this stage in their career. Trickett's numbers look a bit better because of hte offense he's in but Waters has better numbers in conference play with a 152QB rating while Trickett has 135 passing for just 11 TD's and 7 INT's. He'll have issues against Kansas State too because they have allowed just 8 TD passes to 9 INT's in conference play. West Virginia's pass defense is very very good, but that's not at all how Kansas State tries to win. Kansas State will rely on their unique rushing offense with a few passes sprinkled in and they have the talent at receiver in Sexton and Lockett to give the Mountaineers issues.
Stats do not lie at this point in the season and it's clear Kansas State is the better team coming into a better situation. Their 3rd down offense in conference play is considerably better, but their red zone offense and defense is what makes me super confident in this play. In the red zone over 6 conference games, Kansas State has 27 attempts converting 74% into TD's while on defense they have allowed 18 att and 55% TD's. Compared with West Virginia who has 21 attempts over 7 games in the red zone converting just 57% and allowing 70% TD's over 20 attempts. Red zone is where these tight battles are won and I give a significant advantage to Kansas State who knows how to get the most out of their opportunities.
Arkansas State -5.5 1.1* Free Play
Arkansas State is a team that beat Utah State in non-conference and also played Miami and Tennessee. In fact they did not weaken their schedule by playing FCS opponents either. Texas State is still new to the FBS world with 1 of their 5 wins coming against Arkansas PB of the FCS, and the other 4 wins have come against inferior opponents with a record of 8-32. Arkansas State's losses have come against much better opponents. The conference stats also don't lie in this scenario.
Both teams like to let the ball fly a little, but Arkansas State is much more polished with 140QB rating in conference play including 12 TD's to 3 INT's. They'll go up against a defense allowing 130QB rating in conference play which isn't bad, but their own QB play has suffered mightily in conference play at 116 QB rating against a much weaker schedule. Arkansas State's pass defense has been amazing allowing 103 QB rating in conference play and only 4 TD's to 8 INT's. I also love the fact that Arkansas State was a 15 point favorite a week ago at home and lost which gives us a bit of value here.
