There are a couple of 7's out there, but I still love this at +6 as this line may move in that direcitno.
If you have read my analysis all bowl season you would have learned that I was all over the ACC because of the experience they had vs. other power 5 schools. The case is still true after the ACC went 9-3 ATS in bowl games. ACC went 9-4 this year as opposed to 4-6 a year ago against the SEC and as a football conference has come a long way. The SEC is 3-1 this bowl season over the SEC with their only loss being LSU defeating Louisville. Clemson has had an up and down year, but their offense is very much under rated still when you factor in that they went against 9 top 40 defenses. Compare that with Alabamaâs offense which has faced a total of 6. I also think Clemsonâs defense is under rated and I am a bit disappointed that they played so well in their last game shutting out Ohio State.
Ohio State has a similar offense when you think about it. Sure the talent on the offensive line is a bit better with Alabama, but I also think itâs a bit hidden. Compared to last year when Alabama faced defenses with an average rank of 39th overall they faced an average rank of 56.5. Jalen Hurts, the freshmen QB has not always played well and the offense has struggled against their top opponents in terms of defense. LSU, it was a 0-0 game in the 4th, Auburn it was 13-9 at the half, Florida despite giving up 54 points actually only gave up 372 yards and it was a game early. Washington also played well giving up just 17 points (24 total, as 7 came on a pick six). Clemson who has the 6th ranked defense is going to be a challenge for Hurts and this offense in my opinion. Clemson has not missed a beat with Brent Venables the defensive coordinator that I touted last week when I gave out Clemson. This defense leads the nation in tackles for loss and has enough talent to give Alabama issues.
The other thing to consider other than the fact that the ACC is a better overall conference this year and the Clemson faced an overall tougher schedule while Alabama faced a weaker schedule this year is the fact that Clemson had more returning starters than Alabama did this year. Many are touting this defense to be the best ever at Alabama and itâs certainly talented, but they havenât really faced an offense as good as Clemson. Clemson in last yearâs title game had 31 first downs to Alabamaâs 18. They had 550 total yards to 473 yards. We have seen this Alabama defense struggle against good QBâs and there arenât many on their schedule. I donât count Bronwing from Washington he barely faced a defense all year and I knew he would struggle. Alabama though against Chad Kelly, a guy who has weapons really struggled as Kelly was 26-41, 421 yards 3 TDâs and 1 interception. Ole Miss lost that game 48-43, but would have won if Alabama did not recover 4 of the 5 overall fumbles in that game. I feel strongly that Alabama is actually lucky to be undefeated and there is a bit of misleading info out there about this team who just fired their offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin so he could go work at Florida Atlantic on his new job. We really havenât seen that before and maybe it was the best decision, but itâs definitely creating some distractions.
Special teams as we know is a very key factor in every game. While Clemson is still not a top special teams unit they have really improved. ITâs what killed them in the championship game a year ago where they were handling the game well with a 14-7 lead and then later a 24-21 lead. However, they gave Alabama great field position too often and they allowed Kenyan Drake to return a kick 95 yards. That simply canât happen and I donât think it will this time around. Last year Clemson ranked 105th in special teams and this year they rank 65th. Alabama last year ranked 24th and now they rank 47th. These two units are not as far apart.
The difference is going to be Deshaun Watson who will sell out for this game. He remembers last year and he has been saving his best efforts for the playoffs. He was able to run against Alabama last year and this year he has several weapons back that he didnât a year ago. This offense in my opinion is better and more experienced with Gallman & Scott playing last year in this game in the backfield. Hunter Renfrow was the surprise star of last year and heâs back, but probably the most exciting thing is the return of Mike Williams at WR. Also TE Jordan Leggett who had a big game last year also returns. Add that all up and I would say Clemson wins this game. The only reason Iâm not going to just take them on the money line is Watson might have a key interception in this game that turns the momentum. Alabama has been able to do that every single game and Watson likes to take risks at times that have hurt him. He had a couple interceptions against Ohio State, but they still won 31-0. I donât think he can get conservative in this game, but Iâm not 100% confident in him playing a clean game against this defense, but I think Clemsonâs defense is good enough to keep this within a field goal.
