I'm 11-5 the last 3 Saturday's on premium college football picks!!
Going with the Beavers at home in this situation. Let's give Stanford the credit they deserve as they have started 4-1 in impressing fashion, but this will be their most challenging test on the road against Oregon State team that is starting to get on a roll after an impressive PAC-10 victory over a talented Arizona State tteam 28-17. Arizona State is no joke as they rank 8th in total defense and 9th in pass defense yet Oregon State was able to go into their stadium and beat them. Oregon State will be on revenge after losing in Stanford last year 28-36. Stanford is off a win against UCLA 24-16 and seems to be the real deal so far, but keep in mind they are 3-0 in the conference by beating three teams picked to finish at the bottom of the conference this year Wash State, Washington, and UCLA.
For me it is is as simple as what each team has to do to win, and for Oregon State it's pretty basic stop the run and Toby Gerhart and you win this game. Oregon State ranks 12th in rush defense, but it should or could be a lot higher as they have faced teams that don't run the ball. Stanford on the other hand will have to stop two parts of the game and that is the Rodgers brothers Quizz in the run game and James in the passing game who is coming off a 10 reception performance last week. While Stanford does have a weapon in Ryan Whalen as a receiver who is second in the Pac-10 in receiving yards, Oregon State has the counter to this weapon in Brandon Hardin who had an interception in his first start. He is one of the more physically gifted men on this roster and I expect him to excel in his second start. He's also a great open field tackler.
What other advantages does Oregon State have here on Saturday? Well Stanford has been very bad on the road and they have not been tested to this point. They were home against UCLA and Washington and visited Washington State which is basically the joke of a very good Pac-10 conference. Stanford has lost 9 of their last 11 games away from home. Oregon State has more talent than the first three opponents and they'll be able to stop Gerhart at home forcing redshirt quarterback Andrew Luck to have a big day. On the other side Stanford's D has some major issues against the run and they will now face their most difficult task and it comes on the road against Jacquizz Rodgers the reigning Pac-10 offensive player of the year last year as a freshmen. Remember Oregon State is a very good team at home and they beat USC, Cal, and Arizona State last year at home. If you remember previous years this is the time of year Oregon State leap frogs in progression and makes a stand and this weekend I think they have an easier task than many think which is why you will hear many people talking about Oregon State next week because right now Stanford is the talk of the Pac-10. Beaver QB Canfield will face an inexperienced secondary and will have James Rodgers open on slants making him very dangerous.
The X factor- home field advantage obviously which is what we mentioned above, but Stanford has fumbled 12 times losing seven and has been the biggest struggle of this offense. Turnovers are what change and decide games a lot of the time and with the crowd behind them in their first real conference road game because I don't count Washington State I think they'll struggle. Note Stanford has not lost a fumble this season and they are one of just 5 schools that can claim this impressive stat.
