I love Florida here they just had back to back weeks of playing against the two favorites to go to the National Championship with LSU and Alabama the two best defenses in the nation and maybe two of the more dominating defenses we have seen in many years. They lost their QB in the Alabama game, but Florida has plenty of talent to over come that loss especially going up against an Auburn team that is starting to fade out after a surprising hot start. Auburn's defense just is not there to give Florida any problems.
Auburn is ranked 104th in total defense and 103rd vs. the run. Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps should have a field day and Auburn has shown a lot of issues defending teams operating out of the spread so expect Charlie Weis to use a lot of his spread packages and rotate QB's based on the plays. Yes, Florida has been vulnerable against the run the last two weeks and yes Auburn can run the ball with Michael Dyer, but Florida just faced two of the best offensive lines int he country and they are better than Auburn's bunch. Auburn is also one dimensional unlike LSU and Alabama who have a balanced attack. They are ranked 106th in passing and have a QB issue of their own. Trotter went 6-19 vs. Arkansas and teams have begun to stack the box to contain Dyer and I think Florida can do that on Saturday.
Some key stats and takeaways from this game are. Auburn is allowing 50% conversions on 3rd down on defense while Florida is allowing 30%, no contest Florida can get off the field quicker than Auburn. Florida has allowed just 6 sacks and Auburn has just 7 sacks on the season. Florida should be able to keep Auburn's defense honest as they'll have time to throw, when they actually do. Both of these teams have a common opponent in their own building playing Florida Atlantic. Florida won 41-3 and were +333 yards despite 3 turnovers, while Auburn won 30-14 they were just +8 yards. Florida had 150 more yards on offense proving in my opinion that not only is their defense better but their offense is too and that is evident considering the line opened at pk and has moved to -2. Florida is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 as a road favorite and Auburn is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss.
Dan Persa is back the only reason they did not beat Illinois is he got banged up but we won that game ATS but lost our MOney line bonus at 3 to 1 in that game. Persa threw for 336 yards a week ago vs. Michigan and it was the defense that could not stop Michigan's dual threat QB. Well this week they don't have to face a dual threat QB which is a relief for the defense they have had 3 games in a row having to stop backfields that just operate differently than most teams. Illinois is not easy to stop and Army has the triple option that they were not used to seeing. Now this becomes a very big game for Northwestern and Persa is not about to let his Sr. year slip away. He's had Iowa's number in the past and Iowa does not have an offense and their defense is not as good as years past either.
Iowa was getting beat bad by Pitt before coming back late and they lost in OT to Iowa State there is nothing impressive on their resume including their 13-3 loss vs. Penn State. There is no doubt in my mind that Northwestern will be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Penn State had 395 total yards vs. them and Penn State's offense is embarrassing. I expect Persa to have a great game and if they can avoid the 2nd half struggles of losing double digit leads in the 2nd half they should win this game. Iowa's QB James Vandenberg is not a mobile QB that can buy time to find open guys and he also lacks the accuracy to make quick throws. I like Northwestern's defense to rebound from some awful games and we know Northwestern will win the turnover battle they are +7 on the year and hardly ever turn the ball over. Northwestern is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a road dog 3.5 - 10 points.
