I love Mich State even after their big win last week. Mainly because Nebraska to me is not ready for Big Ten competition. For one Mich State beat Wisconsin and Nebraska was dominated by them and they also beat Ohio State who had Nebraska beat until Braxton Miller got hurt and they lost momentum in the 3rd quarter.
Mich State forced a better QB that loves to run in Denard Robinson as Mich State won 28-14 in that game holding Denard to 9-24 passing and 18 rushes for just 42 yards. Michigan State is allowing just 2.91 yards per carry in conference play. Mich State has been dominant on 3rd down converstions allowed holding opponents to 27.5% in conference play. That will be a huge advantage Saturday when Mich State stops the running game early forcing Taylor Martinez to be a thrower which we are all well aware that's never a good thing and a reason why they can't win this game despite Mich State coming off a huge win.
Nebraska is no Nebraska on defense they allow 4.66 yards per carry and they have just 9 sacks, just 1 per game in conference games. While Michigan State can stop the run and they have 19 sacks in 3 conference games. Kirk Cousins is a veteran and should have all day to throw and the running game continues to get better by the day. nebraska is just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 as a home favorite and 8-17 ATS in their last 25 after scoring 40 points in previous game as they played Minnesota last week the Big Ten's worst team.
Lastly Nebraska is allowing 80% of conference opponents red zone attempts to be touchdowns and Michigan State is scoring 90% of their red zone attempts in conference play as TD's. Michigan State has also allowed half as many red zone attempts as Nebraska's defense on the year so again I'm going with the defensive team that continues to get better at their weaknesses meanwhile Nebraska continues to show they can not have a balanced offensive attack.
