Just 29% of the public bet are buying the Huskies right now, because of what Rutgers did last week, but in reality they really got lucky with Zach Collaros being out with an injury and we were all over Rutgers at +3 as our play of the week. This week we will fade the Scarlet Knights as the roller coaster Big East continues. Uconn needs a win to stay alive for a bowl game and Rutgers is due for a bit of a let down here while Uconn will try to have revenge on their 3 point loss at Rutgers a year ago.
Uconn may have the best defensive line in the Big East. They are really talented allowing 93 ypg on the ground and just 2.63 yards per carry on the ground. I really don't see Jamison doing what he did to Cinci in back to back weeks. Uconn will not miss tackles and this game will get turned over to Rutgers suspect passing game. That will allow Uconn to win via the turnover as they are +2 at home. Rutgers is 111th in the running game just a FYI.
Rutgers defense has been stout but I believe Uconn's running game can have some success as Lyle McCombs 4.33 ypc should come into effect at home as a closer look at Rutgers defense reveals they are allowing 4.52 yards per carry on the road. Uconn is better at running the ball and they're better at stopping the run at this point in the season yet they are home under dogs based on recent performance? Oddsmakers got this all wrong.It's do or die for Uconn and Rutgers is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Huskies. This game will come down to a field goal that's why I recommend buying the half point so you get a win instead of the push!
Almost jumped all over Ohio State as the play of the week, but it'll be my 2nd largest play of Saturday instead. First of all Michigan has not faced a defense this good at home all season long maybe since Notre Dame and Ohio State is much better than Notre Dame's defense which really is a one man show. Ohio State always has LB and the personnel to stop what Michigan does best which is run the ball and force Denard Robinson into being a pocket passer so he turns the ball over.
Ohio State is allowing just 3.66 ypc this season, Michigan is averaging 5.31 on the year but 2.86 in losses. If Ohio State can slow that running game down and I believe they will they can cover this spread with ease especially since they too can run the ball averaging 4.47 yards per carry, 4.49 on the road and 4.53 in conference play. Ohio State has dominated this match up with their defense and while Michigan's defense is miles from where they were a year ago I still don't trust them especially since their non conference schedule had Eastern Mich, Western Mich, and San Diego State.
Denard Robinson will be due for a pick or two he's got 15 on the year and Ohio State just does not turn the ball over. That's key for a team catching a TD + spread as we know they'll most likely be + in the TO margin. The only real defenses that Michigan has faced close to Ohio State's talent level has been Michigan State and Iowa and they managed just 30 points total and lost both games. Ohio State faced a similar style Nebraska team and we had them at +10 as our play of the week then. Ohio State held a 27-6 lead in the 3rd quarter before they lost the momentum when Braxton Miller got hurt, but Miller is back and he's playing well. Ohio State got DeVier Posey back at WR in their last game 4 rec 66 yards and that was huge as he can give them a threat in the passing game which should stretch the field. Of the 4 Big Ten losses Ohio State has had none of them have been blowouts losing by 4.7 ppg. Ohio State is 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning home team and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points.
I like this match up Syracuse comes off a bye week they desperately needed and Cinci comes into this game after losing their heart in the last 2 games. Zach Collaros remains out and now they have this guy Munchie who after watching his game vs. Rutgers can not throw a lick. Guess what Syracuse does not allow teams to run on them - 2.93 yards per carry at home 3.55 overall. This is a team that beat West Virginia at home and Syracuse is more than capable to take advantage of Cinci's weakness in pass defense as Ryan Nassib is completting 63% of his passes for 20 TD and only 6 interceptions. Munchie will have issues all day long as Syracuse dominated up front on the road last year vs. Cinci and I think they do again today as they come out with an outright victory. The dog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings and Syracuse is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 following a bye week.
