I have mentioned several times I like backing ACC teams the best this bowl season and so far they have delivered going 3-0 SU and ATS. This is one game I will look to fade, because we have a under rated Arkansas team as a TD underdog. Virginia Tech though theyâd get a better bowl having won their ACC division and losing by just 7 to Clemson in their bowl game, but they donât.
Arkansas defense has been dreadful this year, but I really factor in the fact that they have played offences ranked an average 45 in yards per play. Here they play #58, and they are well rested. This team had a brutal stretch and injuries and players were banged up, but here they should be 100% and get their leading tackler back in Greenlaw who went out in the Alabama game. Virginia Techâs offense will pose a threat here with Jerrod Evans at QB having a great season, but when you really look at it the faced an average defense ranked 70th in YPP defense.
Arkansas offense should have success and in order to do so they must protect their QB Austin Allen and run the football. Allen has dynamic receivers when given time this offense can score, but the problem is he faced some of the best defenses in the nation including 3 top 10 units. He faced teams with a pass rush ranked 4th, 10th, 15th, 16th, 24th, and 32nd, but here he faced 59th. Virginia Tech not as strong this year in pass rush and they lose a guy on the DE in Vinny Mihota that they have to replace. They lack a natural pass rusher. I give an edge to Arkansas offensive line not having to face a Myles Garret, Jonathan Allen or Arden Key is a big deal.
Virginia Techâs defense was solid this year, but they lacked the pass rush and they are vulnerable against the run. They had a 4 game span where they allowed 5 ypc in each game. I think Virginia Tech will do a good job early of stopping the run, but I can see Virginia Tech coming out trying to loosen this defense up with their passing game which I think will be effective. Overall I give Arkansas a shot to win this game so grabbing this as a TD is good value!
