I have an obligation to you to tell you why Iâm betting on a team as well as how I got there. The public can not keep up winning like this and well over 60% is liking Toledo tonight, but also my formulas have a strong lean on Ball State which is where I get all my leans from. The other half of my strategy is research and film. This approach has made me consistent profit over the past years and if you have been with me that long you know thatâs true with well over 200 units of total profit on a 1-5 unit scale.
Not a huge play by any means, but I feel Ball State deserves more credit here. Before I get into all of the stats behind this selection you ought to know that Toledo hasnât faced a balanced offense (top 50 in rush yards and passing yards) since week 1 vs. Arizona, their only loss. Ball State can absolutely stay with Toledo in this game and I even think they can stop Toledo on defense and surprise some people.
Ball State has balance as I said and that starts with their experienced accurate QB Keith Wenning who averages 270 yards passing per game and has been connecting with the MACâs #1 ranked receiver Willie Snead 68 receptions 901 yards, but this offense also runs the ball well with Jahwan Edwards and others who combine for over 200 yards per game. Toledoâs run defense is ranked 121st allowing 5.5 ypc and they also struggle to get to the QB ranked 101st with no signs of either improving. Although they did hold their last two opponents to 23 and 20 points keep in mind the Buffalo game was in a sloppy field and Cincinnati can not pass the ball. Wenning is far more accurate than Munchie Legaux. While Toledo has yet to get a pass rush, Wenning is nearly untouchable on the season ranked 8th in sacked % in the nation and is even better on the road at getting the ball out of his hand where he has completed 66% of his passes for 14 TDâs and 4 interceptions.
Iâm not ignoring Toledoâs explosive offense behind their own balanced attack, but recent results has be convinced that Ball State can have greater success stopping it. In Ball Stateâs last 4 games they have faced some good rushing offenses like Toledo, and all of those offenses are ranked highly in 3rd down offense, 19th, 27th, 31st, and then Central Mich at 98th. Ball State held those opponents to 10 for 46 on third down including Northern Illinois to 2-12. Overall in 5 conference games with similar opponents they have held opposing offenses to 26% conversions while Toledo has held them to 36%, both teams are 3-0 vs. the Michigans (CMICH, WMICH, EMICH). There is tape out there on how to stop Toledoâs offense and if Ball State can limit the big plays they should have a good chance to not only cover this spread but win the game on the road.
Iâll leave you with a couple of stats and emotional advantages that I think Ball State has. Ball State has gotten to the red zone 14 more times on the season and has converted at a higher rate 58% to 47% for Toledo that includes 13 more times in conference play where they have similar opponents and if anything the stronger strength of schedule facing Kent State and N. Illinois. Defensively, Toledo has been better in TD%, but both have allowed 16 attempts in conference play. Toledo just broke into the top 25, and now the MAC has 4 teams in the top 32 none of which are Ball State. They are well aware of this fact and having lost two close games to both Northern Illinois and Kent State and impressive wins on the road including @ Indiana this team is ready for this game. Toledo could be looking ahead to their showdown next Wednesday at Northern Illinois. It also doesnât hurt for Ball State to have the best field goal kicker in the nation.
