I had UCLA on a strong lean last week, but I really couldn't help but hold off knowing that this team already knew they were heading to the Pac 12 Championship no matter what. It was only a matter of who they felt like facing more. Oregon or Stanford? One had to wonder if they led up a bit in this game or came out flat and after watching the game tonight, since it was only on the PAC 12 channel on Saturday I am convinced that UCLA did hold back as they played one of their worst if not their worst most sloppy game of the year.
One word describes it all in what decided the game, "penalties." UCLA had 12 penalties for 135 yards, and several were back breakers. It actually cost them probably double the 135 yards because of plays it took away and also forced them into many third and longs. UCLA converted plenty of third downs early and it was obvious that they could give Stanford issues with RB Johnathan Franklin and their dynamic TE Joseph Fauria who could not be stopped. Still it was penalty after penalty and some bad throws by QB Hundley as well as some key drops. It was clear that UCLA did not come ready to play and were still hung over from defeating USC at home the week before.
Looking at the stat line you would think Stanford did what they wanted, but UCLA was solid on third down and with the exception of two big runs by Stefan Taylor they held the run in check. They even had several tackles for loss on first downs, but penalties took over the game and probably gave Stanford at least 10 points or took away 7 points from their own. By the end of the game it was obvious that Stanford was the more desperate team as they seemed to empty the playbook or at least show all of their goods. I saw the wild cat, I saw their jumbo package, I saw them turn to passing on first down because the run was not working. Stanford's offense is not that creative to begin with and I don't anticipate them changing at home. They've held a steady game plan all year. Run the ball 56% of the time, home or away and even with the success of Kevin Hogan they have actually run the ball more 60% of the time over the last three games and that falls into the strength of the UCLA Bruins who are among the best in the conference at stopping the run and even on the road they held opponents to 3.49 ypc which was better than their home stat. Their rushing offense on the flip side was also better on the road this year and watching the game film you could see Johnathan Franklin was just one play away from breaking it. He's looked the best against Stanford's run defense that has been dominant and I would argue he's the best RB in America.
The fact that they have an accurate QB to go along with that is a dangerous recipe. Hundley just seemed to have an off game last week and I think this entire team is going to bounce back and play with discipline because it is the PAC 12 Championship. They were here last year and didn't deserve it (USC Suspension) and got blown out by Oregon and this year they'd like to make a statement especially with everyone down on them again.
I'll add this last bit of info. Stanford has not been dominant really in any game this year against a worthy opponent. Even at home their games have all been decided by a TD or less. 4, 7, 6, 7, and 3 points respectfully and they should have lost to Oregon State. They did beat Duke by 37 points, and dominated California 21-3, and Colorado 48-0 on the road, but those are bad teams. UCLA is a very good team with a solid defense and a balanced offense that can move the ball so long as they are disciplined.
