I looked back I am 15-2-1 ATS backing Wisconsin over my 8 year career!
I like this play with the Badgers as they got a relaxing win over Michigan State last week that nobody is taking seriously considering the way Notre Dame looked. Wisconsin is a solid team all around and this game is going to come down to whether or not Michigan can score through the air. Wisconsin is super solid defending the run having only allowed 1 rushing TD and they have kept all 4 opponents under their season average for rushing yards per carry. Meanwhile Michigan has been pretty inconsistent running the ball which raises some red flags for me. Michigan vs. Colorado rushed for just 4.10 ypc while Colorado has allowed 4.28 on the season. Michigan vs. UCF, Wolverines averaged just 2.90 ypc and UCF is allowing 3.88 on the season. Hawaii game was a little different as they rushed for 7.85 and Hawaii is allowing 6.36 so they are pretty bad. Hawaii had a dreadful travel spot playing in Sydney, Australia, back to Hawaii (30 hours of travel time), and then another 30 hours of travel time to Michigan all in an 8 day span. Penn State is awful this year and we saw it against Pitt when the Panthers ran all over Michigan. My point is I donât think Michiganâs rushing offense is top 25 and you can bet Wisconsinâs run defense is in the top 25 having proven themselves vs. LSU and Michigan State.
When Michigan canât run the ball they struggle. There were 3 games when they did not have a rushing TD a year ago and they went 1-2. Their lone win against Indiana they did not cover the spread, and when you look at their game against Michigan State they averaged 1.88 ypc and lost as well. Wisconsin does not give up the big play, and I canât rely on Wilton Speight to score TDâs in the red zone which is what will have to happen in this one for them to cover 10.5 points. Wisconsin has only allowed 2 passing TDâs and they have 6 interceptions.
This is going to be a very good game with two of the top 30 teams in yards per play allowed and plays per game allowed. This game should be shortened quite a bit and Iâm getting 10.5 points with a very low total of 44.5 which is intriguing. If Wisconsin was not in a bad spot following Michigan State and with Ohio State on deck I would absolutely make this a more confident play, but at the end of the day I am still very confident. I really liked what I saw from QB Alex Hornibrook on the road last week against the Spartans. This kid is very calm cool and collected. He throws an accurate ball and has poise. I just do not really see a lot that separates these two teams at this point and Michigan typically carries an inflated number because of their brand.
**ON TAP THIS WEEKEND**
Teaser of the Week - 24-5 ATS Run since 2014 Season!
College Football MAX Rating Play - 63% ATS for career - 79-47 ATS!
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