If we are talking about strength of schedule Miami has played a far more challenging schedule on the year. In the end what really made me select this game was the match up for Louisville who really has not played that well this year at times against weak competition. Miami will be traveling 500 miles less than Louisville and they too will have a senior QB in Stephen Morris and a rushing game that even without Duke Johnson as they finished 28th in QB rating and 31st in rushing ypc.
You could say with those stats that Miami could beat you both ways. Now when you look at Louisville they have been absolutely great on defense, but this is the best offense they have faced since Central Florida beat them and Miami is probably a little bit more balanced and better. Nobody else was even close as they only faced 1 team in the top 70 in rushing yards per carry with Central Florida ranking 64th. They faced 3 teams in the top 50 in QB rating and they lost the game to Central Florida and only won by a TD to both Cinci and Houston. Now Miami has weaknesses in their passing defense, but I think they will be able to match Louisville point for point and in the end there is just too much value on Miami who will be playing in their home state.
Kansas State is an old school football team. They win and cover when they are able to run the ball and stop the run. I know this is a huge public favorite, but I looked back and since 2009 Kansas State is 62.7% ATS when the majority of the public is backing them. I just don't see how Michigan can score points in this game they were 112th in ypc rushing offense this year and they'll have an inexperienced QB starting over Devin Gardner.
For Kansas State's offense they should be able to run the ball because Michigan struggles against mobile QB's and Daniel Sams has been one of the best in the country for a rushing offense that again has been great. I expect Kansas State to win this game by more than a TD because they are going to be able to run the ball effectively and when you really look at it their offense can also pass the ball since they got their two receiving threats (Locket and Thompson) back so it's not like Michigan can just sell out on the run.
