I'll take the Tigers against the "unbeatable Seminoles." I looked at several aspects of this game, but what I started with was strength of schedule. Not only is the ACC over rated and have gone 4-5 in bowl games, but the SEC is better than last year and is not down based on some experts claims. The SEC is 7-2 in bowl games and Georgia played without their star QB and Alabama didn't want to be there. SEC had 30 wins vs. top 25 teams while the ACC had 2 going 2-26. The Seminoles had the 39th hardest schedule compared to Auburn's 6th. Seminoles non-conference schedule really boosted a lot of stats as they faced a helpless Florida team and then Bethune Cookman, Nevada and Idaho who are both way at the back of solid college football teams. Nonetheless we give the Seminoles plenty of credit for winning all of their games by 27 or more points with the exception of Boston College.....
BC was the one team that Florida State faced in the top 40 in rushing ypc. BC was 12th and as we saw in their bowl game they were not that good against Arizona. However, Auburn ranked 5th and they don't appear to be slowing down. FSU gave up 200 yards to Boston College and if you don't believe Auburn is a better team you are crazy. In this game I think absolutely Auburn will be able to run the ball. They may have to be a little creative to get it going, but with extra time to prepare Guz Malzahn is a genius. This is a guy that broke Auburn records with over 4,000 yards rushing and is also responsible for a 5,000 passing season at Tulsa. I give the coaching edge to Auburn.
It's not like Nick Marshall can't pass either. Marshall came in early knowing only 25% of the playbook, but you could see this offense get better with every game this season and the depth they have at RB is solid to pair with Heisman candidate Tre Mason. I don't see a game on Florida State's schedule that they had to prepare for an offense even remotely close to what Auburn can do. Which means I believe Auburn will get their points. Now their defense is another story, but hidden under everything...
Auburn's ability to hold up on third down holding opponents to 34% and in the red zone they have been amazing holding opponents to 48% TD's will keep them in this game. If they can get pressure on Winston and cause a couple of turnovers I think they can win and Florida State was not great at protecting Winston ranked 83rd in pass protection. A couple of game changers on Auburn's side obviously we know the Nick Marshall and Tre Mason's of the world, but Chris Davis at corner back and Sammie Coates at WR are really really good. This entire Auburn team believes they are a team of destiny and they continue to fight back no matter the situation. Florida State has never been in a tight game in the 4th. Winston seems cool under pressure, but I think Florida State thinks they already won this game while the idea of nobody thinking you can win is really motivating in preparation for an Auburn team. I think 10.5 points is just too much for a team like Florida State who I feel is unproven especially vs. a really good running team.
