Dayton will finally go down after two big victories over a couple of over rated teams in Ohio State and Syracuse who both struggle and lack any kind of balance or consistency on offense. Dayton was able to pull off two big wins by a total of 3 points combined and that won't happen here as they'll face a Stanford team that has a ton of expereince and they are very well coached. I expect them to be ready after the extra time off here. Stanford should have a big edge on the boards and talent and there is enough value for me to take the ML in this one.
Looking into it further Stanford out of the PAC 12 played a much more challenging schedule and their defense is legit and their offense is better than both Ohio State and Syracuses. Dayton won't be able to hold them in the 50's which is what they need to do in order to win this game. Stanford averages 73 points when they are off for 3 or more days which is their best offensive position and I think that will pay dividends against a Dayton team. Stanford just got done holding Kansas to 57 points and they were ranked 13th offensively and they held New Mexico to 53 points and they were ranked 43rd. Now they face Dayton who is ranked 38th and I expect another solid defensive effort that will allow them to capture the first Elite 8 birth.
I really like Wisconsin in this game as Baylor just does not defend the 3 ball well and are ranked 79th in adjusted defense. Wisconsin is the more balanced team that plays offense and defense can shoot inside and out and does not turn the ball over. Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Big 12 and this is Bo Ryan's best offensive team in years on a team that is typically made up of defense. Bo Ryan will have his team ready after 3+ days of rest where they are playing their best defense. It's evident that coaching advantage is on the side of Wisconsin as Baylor plays their worst defense when they are on more than 3 days of rest. Adjustments that Bo Ryan will make on the overall game plan will tilt this game in Wisconsin's favor and 3.5 is enough value to wager.
Florida is everyone's sweetheart to get to the championship game, but they have a tough game here against UCLA, a team that rolled through the PAC 12 tourney against some very good teams in Oregon, Stanford and Arizona. Florida struggles iwth bigger teams as we saw in games with Kentucky and Tennessee down the stretch so I won't be surprised to see UCLA win this game outright. Kyle Anderson is a nightmare of a match up that Scottie Wilbekin is going to have major issues with. Wilbekin should be shut out as Anderson's 7'3 wing span at the guard spot won't allow Wilbekin to do what he wants. UCLA is also used to the style of defense that Florida plays as it's very similar to Arizona's. I think in the end UCLA will win and cover here as Steve Alford has his team well prepared and playing their best basketball of the season. Alford has his team going 13-4 ATS and 15-2 SU on 3 or more days rest compared to Florida's 3-7 ATS record.
