California +3 2.2% play
California hosts Duke in an ACC matchup on October 4, 2025, at Memorial Stadium, with Cal as +3 underdogs in a tight contest. Despite Duke's recent momentum, Cal covers by winning or losing by less than a field goal due to these factors.
Cal's defense ranks 2nd in the ACC (18.0 PPG allowed) and 22nd nationally in EPA/play, poised to contain Duke's 19th-ranked EPA/play offense. Duke's secondary is vulnerable (112th in EPA/pass, 254.2 passing YPG, 310 vs. non-FCS), and their overall defense ranks 102nd in EPA/play, allowing Cal to dictate pace.
Offensively, Cal's pass-heavy scheme (24th nationally) features freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (5th in ACC with 1,234 yards, 8 TDs, 248.4 YPG). Receiver Jacob De Jesus (28 catches) exploits Duke's weak middle-field coverage for big plays.
Home advantage favors 4-1 Cal (1-0 ACC), whose lone loss was an outlier shutout, vs. 3-2 Duke (losses to Tulane, Illinois). Duke's cross-country travel and late kickoff (10:30 p.m. EST) add fatigue; Cal's defense counters Duke's 5-0 ATS streak in ACC games.
With a 55.5 total, Cal's stops and passing exploits yield a close game—Bears cover +3, possibly in a 28-27 Duke win or upset.
