Bears +105 2.5% play
The Chicago Bears are poised to upset the Minnesota Vikings in tonight's Monday Night Football opener at Soldier Field, leveraging their revamped coaching staff and schematic advantages against a vulnerable Vikings squad. Head Coach Ben Johnson, fresh off his success as the Lions' offensive coordinator, brings a proven track record against Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores, having gone 4-0 in their previous matchups with an average of 30.5 points per game. Johnson's innovative schemes—emphasizing misdirection, play-action, and balanced attacks—exploited Flores' blitz-heavy defense, achieving high efficiency in passing (79% completion rate) and rushing (133.8 yards per game). With quarterback Caleb Williams entering his second year, surrounded by weapons like DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and D'Andre Swift, the Bears' offense could overwhelm Minnesota's unit, especially if they establish the run early against a Vikings front missing key defensive lineman Elijah Williams and with safety Harrison Smith doubtful due to illness. Home-field advantage in a raucous Soldier Field, where Chicago has historically performed well in cooler conditions (7-3 in their last 10 home games below 60°F), further tilts the scales, potentially forcing turnovers from rookie QB J.J. McCarthy in his NFL debut.
Defensively, the Bears under new Coordinator Dennis Allen have the tools to capitalize on McCarthy's inexperience, who has seen limited action with just one preseason drive (4-of-7 for 30 yards) after missing his entire 2024 season due to injury. Allen's zone-heavy schemes, which ranked in the top-10 for points allowed during his Saints tenure, could disrupt O'Connell's pass-oriented offense by forcing the raw McCarthy into mistakes—projecting multiple sacks and interceptions amid Minnesota's thinned secondary and questionable left tackle Christian Darrisaw (knee). While O'Connell holds a 2-0 edge over Allen from past encounters, the Bears' refreshed personnel and Johnson's overall coaching continuity provide a counterpunch, especially with Chicago's secondary (despite injuries to Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon) capable of containing Justin Jefferson if they limit explosive plays. Expect the Bears to control the tempo, force Minnesota into a one-dimensional attack, and secure a gritty 23-17 victory, kickstarting their season with a statement win in the NFC North.
