Boise State +11 3.3% Play @ +100
Penn State was a 9 point favorite at home to SMU. The ACC has gone 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in bowl games this year and if SMU did not give up 3 defensive TD’s that game could easily have been different.. The Mountain West is 10-2 ATS as a double digit dog in bowl games. Boise also played right with Oregon on the road as Oregon actually needed 2 special team TD’s to win the game. Oregon is a better team when they played Penn State in the Big Ten Championship to end the year vs. when they played Boise for sure, but it’s still worth noting that Boise probably should have beaten Oregon on the road. I came into this match up wanting to back Penn State, but not over 10 points. Boise has been excellent in the trenches, and actually have the better averages for power success, line yards, and stuff rate. Boise is not going to give the ball up like SMU did as they rank 5th in fewerest % of turnovers per possession.
Boise State +11 3.3% Play @ +100
The way Penn State gets home here is letting Allar go, but I have major questions because they have not let him completely take over a game, which means I think they will continue to rely on their rushing attack, and Boise hold sup well there ranking 18th in ypc allowed, 37th in rushing success rate with garbage time taken out. .Actually Penn State’s rushing success rate with garbage time taken out ranks 105th. This is a team that played in a 7-7 game late in a third quarter against Illinois. My theory is alot of the impressive stats that Penn STate puts up is in garbage time, and they aren’t afraid to run it up against inferior opponents, and that fits with the James Franklin 5-14 record vs. top 10 teams. Boise has their own flaws as well, but they shouldn’t be an 11 point dog here.
