Miami Ohio +3 3.3% play
The winner will advance to the MAC Championship game! We already played the under with the weather conditions for this game before the total moved, and now we have a strong look at Miami Ohio has me confident. The windy conditions will take the ball out of the talented veteran QB's hands on each side of the ball neutralizing each offensive teams strength. Miami Ohio's Brett Gabbert has had a great year in conference play and Connor Bazelak from Bowling Green can claim the same. Both teams have top tier pass defenses, but what is more important in this game is the rushing offense and defense.
Bowling Green is outside the top 50 in both rushing ypc offense and defense ranking 85th and 79th vs. an aveage opponent ranking 70th compared to Miami Ohio who ranks 49th and 35th against an average opponent ranking 72nd. Miami Ohio has gone 5-1 vs. non top 50 run defenses and 4-1 vs. non top 50 rushing offenses, while Bowling Green has gone 2-3 vs. top 50 rushing offenses and 1-3 vs. top 50 run defenses.
Miami Ohio is just a more balanced team here. They also take care of the ball and have the better kicker and special teams. Also noting the nations leading TE in receiving yards, Fannin from Bowling Green is questionable and won't be 100%. He's a huge security blanket and a big weapon in a game with these weather conditions. If he does not play this game moves a point or two so I could see a situation where the spread is 1 or less on game day.
