Memphis +14 -115 3% play
I like the Tigers here getting two TD’s and they are live for a back door cover if they need with Seth Henigan at QB who is in his 4th year as the Memphis QB. Memphis offensive line has done a good job at protecting Henigan they rank 16th in sack % allowed, and the is a good thing going on the road. They also have a complimentary running game ranked 20th in rushing ypc, and 21st in rushing success rate. Memphis also does not turn the ball over ranking 8th in % of turnovers per possession, which is also a good thing for a big dog to cover. Tulane is already in the AAC Championship game on December 6th. It’s hard to imagine they want to put a ton on tape for Army, and I doubt they really want to risk injury. They are a run first offense with 65% of their plays coming via the run, and they are very good at it ranking 29th in ypc, but 49th in rushing success rate. Memphis as a whole does not have great stats, but when you look at their success rate allowed with garbage time taken out they rank 29th, which is very good. Overall I think this could be a closer game given the situation and how Memphis plays as they don’t normally get blown out when they lose. In fact their last 3 years they have lost 9 games by a total of 6.67ppg and none by 14 or more.
