UL Monroe +125 5.5% NCAAF POD
Arkansas State has been outgained in every game this year, but somehow they got their 6th win last week, and are bowl eligible giving them a bit of a let down for this game. LA Monroe is desperate for their 6th win here to get to a bowl game, which is a huge deal for this team. They have played a tougher schedule and have better #’s -0.6 ypp differential against an opponent +0.3 compared to Arkansas State -1.4 vs. -0.255.. They are a run first team with 64% of their play calls being runs, and Arkansas State has been horrible stopping the run ranking 123rd. Monroe has gone 3-1 vs. bad run defenses this season. Arkansas State on the other hand more balanced, but not a good offense by any means, and are 0-4 going up against top 60 pass defenses averaging just 13.25 points in those games. LA Monroes pass defense has been very good especially in 6 conference games holding opposing QB’s to a 102 QB rating. I also like the fact that LA Monroe takes care of the football with only 10 turnovers in 10 games.
