Indiana +10.5 2.2% play 

Ohio State struggled at home vs. Nebraska, and while I like Ohio State this is too many points in my opinion.  I think all the preassure is actually on Ohio State here who can really not afford to lose another game, while Indiana really just wants to not get blown out.  Statistically these teams have plate similar against conference opponents.  Indiana +2.2 ypp vs. an opponent ypp differential of -0.02, while Ohio State +2.9 vs. opponent -0.09.  Indiana played a couple games without Rourke at QB as well, and they are just a solid team across the board.  I think Indiana can hold up in their run defense where they rank 2nd in ypc and 7th in SR rush defense.