South Florida is 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games while Connecticut is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record which is good for a 29-7-2 ATS angle. Both teams have played 3 straight games at home with their anemic offenses and have gone 1-2 only beating an FCS opponent. However, Uconn has looked better against stronger competition.
Uconn faced Boise #38 power rating, BYU #24 good for 35th ranked SOS ranking while USF comes in at 82nd facing Maryland #74 and NC State #57. Uconn will have the best unit on the field on Saturday and that will be their defense. They just got done shutting down Boise and holding them to 292 yards. South Florida has a miserable passing offense and Uconn has the ability to shut down a running game. They held Boise over 150 yards under their season average. Uconn also likes to pass the ball 60% of the time and that's where South Florida's weakness is ranked 82nd, in yards/attempt, 84th in QB rating, but they also have issues stopping the run ranked 81st.
From a yards perspective Uconn was worse than South Florida but those numbers are skewed a bit. When we look at both offenses in their 2 games vs. FBS opponents Uconn was actually able to move the ball. They had 23 first downs vs. BYU who is ranked 24th in defense for yards/play and had 355 yards. Against Boise they had only 290 but had 18 first downs which was more than Boise State and Boise is ranked 54th on defense for yards/play. South Florida on the other hand was miserable in their two games. Against NC State ranked 65th in yds/play defense they had just 8 first downs and 159 yards. Against Maryland ranked 53rd they had 257 yards and 16 first downs. I'm going with the better defense and the offense that has shown more life and I'm getting points. I don't care if this game is on the road Uconn is due for a win against South Florida and I think tonight is the night.
Phil Hughes has been under rated all year long yet he leads the majors in strikeout to walk ratio and has been great against the Indians posting a 1.67 ERA over 4 starts. Indians send Bauer to the mound, but he's struggled on the road with an ERA over 5 and he also has an ERA over 5 against the Twins. I'll take the Twins as the home team this late in the season.
