Houston Cougars +110 4% play
Two first year head coaches with their teams heading in opposite directions. Houston is on a run and has defeated 3 of their last 4 opponents as an under dog beating TCU, Utah and Kansas State. Willie Fritz is a program builder and off the by will have his team poised for some more upsets to get to a bowl game. Big coaching advantage here.
Statistically Arizona has the far superior offense, but if we are looking at match ups and recent success I don't think that's the case. Arizona will face at op run defense in Houston that ranks 27th in success rate allowed. Arizona's rushing attack ranks 122nd, they have a banged up offensive line, and they have been turnover prone all year ranking 122nd in turnover % per posession. They have gone 0-4 vs. top 50 run defenses scoring 7, 7, 12, and 26 points.
Houston's offense ranks 119th in yards per play, but they have faced a very challenging schedule especially in road games. However, to win on the road you must play defense, and be able to run the ball. Houston runs the ball nearly 60% of their plays, and Arizona ranks 109th in ypc allowed and 78th in rushing success rate. They also can't stop the pass ranking 104th in passing success rate defense. The move to Zeon Chriss at QB has proven to be a good move for Fritz. Chriss is a runner as well, and that will provide additional challenges for Arizona in this one who have struggled to stop running QB's as well.
