I really like Duke here with revenge on their mind from last year’s home beating 45-20 to North Carolina who had 593 yards of offense in that game. That game was still closer than the final score, and Duke’s defense is much improved this year as is North Carolina’s, but I think Duke’s defense is the real deal. Duke ranks 6th in yards per play, and this is by far the best defense that North Carolina has faced, and I also think the strengths of each defense gives Duke the advantage, because North Carolina is 70th vs. the run and this is very good for Duke, because when they have faced teams ranked 61st or worse vs. the run they average 37.4 ppg and that has happened 5 times this season. Duke, also much more balanced ranking 8th in run defense, and 17th in pass defense.

North Carolina, does have 2 extra days to prepare, and I’m definitely factoring that in here, but this is a big rivalry game, Duke’s players are saying everything right the week after the refs cost them a win against Miami. In reality that game did not matter is what they said this is the game that matters and the winner is likely to go on to face Clemson in the ACC Championship game. I also like the advantage in the passing game for Duke. Marqise Williams definitely prone to the interception with 7 on the year and he will be forced into some situations where everyone will know he’s passing which is not good. It will be interesting to see how the Tar Heels adjust when they are not able to run the ball. They’ve only faced 1 team in the top 60 in run defense. UNC also scores with big plays, Duke one of the best in limiting big plays ranking 16th in isoPPP+.

North Carolina is getting a lot of credit here from the oddsmakers and I’m not buying it. The improved defense is the main reason why and Gene Chizik definitely deserves some credit, but the red flag is there in their run defense, and not to mention the last 4 opponents are ranked 111th, 119th, 92nd, and 90th in yards per play. Duke by no means is great on offense, but they have already played in games against good defenses and prevailed. They also get a UNC run defense that’s not very good and that should help them greatly.

Other key stats in this game like 3rd downs and red zone are a wash, but where Duke has an advantage are in penalties per game, they have a major advantage on special teams ranking 2nd in the nation in special teams efficiency. They are +34 in tackles for loss, they have 27 more tackles for loss than North Carolina who is +4 in tackles for loss which just goes to show you that this Duke team is for real on defense. They are also +10 in sacks while UNC is +1.

Where to find Freddy?