West Virginia +3.5 3.3% play

West Virginia has been a better road team this year for whatever reason.  They have the better overall defense ranking 20th in success rate compared to Cinci 119th rated success rate defense.  West Virginia's biggest issue has been giving up the big plays, and Cinci really does not have that explosive offense.  West Virginia wants to run the ball and they average 6.15 ypc in wins, and 3.65 in losses.  Cincinnati is 84th in run defense from a ypc perspective and 119th in rushing success rate defense. 

West Virginia has also by far faced the tougher schedule.  They have a common opponent in Pitt and both were 2 point favorites and lost the game.  The only problem is Cinci was at home while West Virginia was on the road.  Both teams played a similar statistical game, but West Virginia far better in the run game, and allowed nearly a yard less per play against Pitt compared to Cinci who allowed 7.32 ypp.  Cinci's next toughest game was at Colorado, while West Virginia has played Iowa State, Kansas State and Penn State.