Missouri just lost two in Indiana's user's team out of the Big Ten last week as a double-digit favorite. I think that gives us plenty of value this week as Missouri now goes on the road to face a very good South Carolina teen that is well coached. However all back the underdog coming off a big loss to rebound here as I think they match up extremely well with South Carolina.
South Carolina has really struggled they can't get a pass rush as they are ranked 110 in the country in sac percentage. They are also rank 110th in opposing QB rating on the season as well. Now they are facing very good quarterbacks this early in the season but Maddie Mauk is no slouch that's for sure. South Carolina also played poorly on defense when facing a terrible offense. Vanderbilt is ranked 100 in yards per play this year yet South Carolina allowed them to have nearly 7 yards per play in their last game which is almost 3 yards more than they've been averaging on the season. South Carolina is also allowing 52% conversions on third down and they are allowing 5.27 yards per carry in run defense.
Missouri is a balanced attack nearly 50% rushes 50% passes. They also have a lot on the line in this game and it's certainly a revenge came after they lost to South Carolina last year in dramatic fashion at home. Missouri is a well coached team that is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 following in ATS loss. I don't think South Carolina's offense is good enough to score and cover the spread even though Dylan Thompson has looked very good this far in the season.
Miami struggled big-time with Nebraska's read option we could go and Duke's offense will run something very similar. Dick's offense I believe is a bit more experienced and even a little bit better than Nebraska especially at quarterback with Anthony Boone a senior returning as he faces off against Miami's freshman QB. Dick's offense has a ton of talent from running back to wide receiver to the offense of line and they are well coached.
On paper Miami should dominate running the ball against this Duke team but they've had all sorts of issues without the balance of a passing game. Duke Johnson has great numbers is far as yards per carry go but he has not topped 100 yards yet on the season and Miami ranks 92nd in the country in yards per carry on offense. Theeir new quarterback Brad Kaaya has already thrown seven interceptions. Miami's only converting 26% of their third-downs in those struggles have also carried over into their red zone offense. Duke has three senior linebackers returning and they've been solid in these areas which give them a major advantage in this matchup.
The biggest reason why I'm backing tubes here is the fact that we are getting them at a key number of +7. But they have played a cleaner season with +5 in the turnover margin while Miami has struggled big-time. Duke also features a top 25 special teams unit while Miami has already allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown take Duke and the points.
Notre Dame is once again getting media attention which is nothing new for this program but ranked number eight in the country is a bit overboard. Nearly 65% of the public is backing Notre Dame here will play on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium. Both teams have experience.
I like Syracuse a lot here as they just come off a loss against Maryland which gives us a little bit of value in the line. The loss against Maryland was also misleading and lost by 14 but pay average 7.3 yards per carry and outgained Maryland by 220 yards. This offense is very good and can expose Notre Dame as the Irish have yet to face a truly mobile quarterback. Terrel Hunt fits the part for Syracuse and he has a running back and Gulley who is averaging 7.84 yards per carry. They are both playing behind in offense of wine that is extremely experienced with five seniors.
Notre Dame has looked great but against who? We all saw how Michigan looked at home against Utah as favorites. That makes Notre Dame's victory against them a little less impressive. This is also Notre Dame's first game away from home and while their run defense has allowed less than 3 yards per carry to have not faced a running game like this. Notre Dame's offense is also misleading in my opinion because they lack multiple go to guys can easily put together a game plan to keep this offense in check. It's also a bad sign when your head coach is looking to shake up the offense of line during your bye week. Which is exactly what Brian Kelly has been doing and that offense of line will be in for a tough test against Syracuse which is very good at stopping the run.
