Air Force +10 3.3% play

This line has flipped more than 20 points in just 1 year.  Air Force was a 10.5 point favorite at Navy last year, which would suggest they’d be a 14+ point under dog if this game was at Navy this year.  That is crazy for just any match up, but a match up between service academies where roster turnover does not mean nearly as much as it does to most teams, and then you factor in familiarity of scheme, and the fact that these teams play each year.  Air Force has looked terrible this year, but that’s really the time you want to take a team, and for as bad as they have looked they have easily faced a tougher schedule facing an average opponent defense ranked 55th in ypp, compared to Navy’s opponent average of 94th.  Air Force run defense which is a key to this match up looks far superior ranking 23rd in succes state compared to Navy ranking 101st.  Overall I think we see a close game, and I just can not justify a 24 point move from last year to this year in this match up.