Georgia -1 5.5% NCAAF POD
Revenge! I rarely use this angle, which hasn’t worked in handicapping for over a decade, but this is on the rare occasion I think it is a factor. Georgia should have been in the college football playoff last year, but their lone loss was to Alabama. Georgia has had this game circled all summer long. Georgia has been tested already this season against Kentucky on the road and Clemson. The Clemson win really looks a lot better now, and the Kentucky clunker is something we have seen from Georgia in years past and I’m not concerned. We saw it last year against Missouri, and they bounced back to dominate Top 10 Ole Miss 52-17. In 2022 they struggled against Missouri again and bounced back to win 42-10 against Auburn.
Alabama has not been tested, and I saw a lot of red flags in their game against South Florida. Alabama has faced an average ranked ypp defense ranking 115th, and their opponent ypp differential is -2 yards per play. Compare that with Georgia who has faced an average opponent ypp differential of +0.85. Alabama’s offense lives and dies on the explosive pass play, which I think is something a great defense can stop. Georgia is #1 in explosive plays allowed and #2 in passing success rate defense. Alabama has had their number in the Nick Saban era, and I have all the respect for their new coach, but I think Georgia is on a mission this year, and it starts with a road win at Alabama tonight.
