Arizona is a top 15 team nationally and undefeated off a big win at Oregon as a 3+ TD favorite. Now they go back home and they are under dogs against a team with 2 losses? Well that's because USC is just a better team and I expect them to win and cover in this game. Arizona beat Oregon last year as a +20.5 favorite and proceeded to lose the next week 21-58. Oregon is not the top tier team we thought they were and haven't been the same since Chip Kelly went to the NFL.
First of all Arizona off this big win is due for a hang over or a let down whatever you want to call it. Their offense is led by two freshmen and in QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson who probably think college football and winning is easy. I think they are in for a rude awakening against a pissed off USC team that played well but lost on a hail mary at home. When you look at Arizona's results and schedule they haven't faced a top defense especially in pass defense. USC is 32nd in opponent QB rating, but Arizona has faced 86th, 109th, 55th, 100th, and 93rd so I'm not surprised Solomon has enjoyed so much success. USC is also tough against the run despite their rank. Boston College ran all over them and I'm going to throw that game out when you consider they just got done holding their last two opponents well under their season averages including Arizona State who is still ranked 13th in ypc despite rushing for under 2 yards per carry vs. USC's defense.
Arizona will have a tough time with Cody Kessler who is completing 69.5% of his pass without any interceptions. He also has Javorious Allen who is averaging over 5 yards per carry and rushed for over 150 vs. a pretty good Stanford defense. Arizona's pass defense is not good allowing a 151 QB rating and they have given up a higher QB rating to all 4 of their 5 opponents. Oregon had a 170 QB rating but on the season average over 190. Overall I just think USC is too good in their pass defense and they seemed to fix the issues in their run defense and we get them at a true bargain. Before last week this spread probably would have been 5.5 or 6 point favorites. USC has allowed just 25% conversions on third down and 46% TD's in the red zone and are +7 in turnover margin with 0 turnovers in their last 4 games. Arizona is just not a good red zone team right now 52% TD percentage on offense and 67% on defense.
Ole Miss just got done with arguably their biggest win in program history. Shit.. we even saw their QB Bo Wallace being carried off the field and the goal posts being ripped down. Talk about going back to old times. I don't see this team re-grouping against an A&M team that has more offense than this Ole Miss defense has seen all year and they have to face it on the road. Even the Ole Miss run defense showed holes against Alabama allowing nearly double their season ypc allowed. Bo Wallace simply can't carry this team on the road in my opinion. Maybe he can do it against Vanderbilt on the road right now but not against A&M where he will be required to score in the 30's. I just don't like how they match up here..
For one thing A&M's stock is down and they are looking for redemption right now and what better way then to face a team that just beat Bama. A&M is humbled right now and they have a good coach and are 6-2 ATS following a SU loss so I like them here especially when you look at what goes on up front. A&M is better at pressuring the QB and protecting the QB ranking top 20 in both. Ole Miss front is nasty, but on the road that should be a different story against a QB that can run and throw and if it weren't for 9 drops by his receivers last week we could be seeing A&M undefeated and listed as a 6 point favorite. Ole MIss is ranked 82nd in sack % while Kenny Hill has been sacked <3% of his drop backs. Give the dude time and he's going to burn you.
A&M's defense has been a concern, but they get a better match up this week. After playing Arkansas and Miss State who try to beat you with their physical play they'll play an Ole Miss team that will try to spread you out and use their speed. That plays right into the strength of A&M's defense which is more athletic and agile than they are tough and big. A&M was pretty stingy in the red zone and on 3rd down until last game and I bet they get back to their bend but not break defense while their offense continues to click on their way to a double digit win.
On paper this almost looks to obvious with how poor Michigan looks right now. Listen Brady Hoke is on his way out and he knows it. I don't see him fighting for his job nor do I see the players fighting for him. Michigan is getting some money here for their play at home under the lights, but I don't see it. Penn State has the far superior coach in James Franklin and he has an extra week to prepare coming off a loss.
Penn State's loss was an ugly one at the time vs. Northwestern by double digits, but since Northwestern has defeated Wisconsin as well. There is no doubt Christina Hackenberg has regressed, but playing Michigan's shaky pass defense should help. Once again it all starts up front and Michigan can't get to the QB while they also can't protect their QB. Penn State is #1 in run defense and they're pretty solid vs. the pass too ranking 35th in sack %. James Franklin as a head coach is a pretty damn good one off byes. With Vanderbilt the last 3 years he was 5-2 SU & ATS, 5-0 ATS the last two years including 3x as an under dog. His two losses were against Alabama on the road and his first bowl game against Cincinnati in his first year as a coach.
