Alabama +2 4.4% play 

These teams met in 2020, while Alabama was 7.5 point favorite, and now they area  2, 2.5 point dog in the span of 4 years it is a 10 point move and Alabama dominated that game.  Obviously a lot has changed since that game, but lets be honest 10 points in favor of Michigan is a bit crazy.  Michigan has faced a weak schedule this season, and the Big 10 has not looked good in these bowl games - Penn State, and Ohio State both lost to SEC teams as favorites.  Alabama has the better coach, especially with extra time, while Jim Harbough has really struggled in this spot against top 10 teams so numbers aside Alabama clearly has the edge with their coaching staff.

Michigan’s defense ranks 4th, but their average opponent ypp rank is 94th.  I think they are in for a culture shock here facing an Alabama offense that really hit its strides down the stretch has all kinds of ways to beat you with the explosive pass play, the mobile QB, and an offensive line that really improved as the season went on.  This Alabama team is better than the TCU team that beat Michigan a season ago.  The SEC has really dominated the Big 10 in the bowl games and until that changes I really could not lay the points with a Big Ten team as a favorite at this point.