Bowling Green +3.5 2.2% / Bowling Green +150 0.3% play
Bowling Green +3.5 2.2% play / Bowling Green +150 0.3% play
This game to me with a total under 40 seems like it’s going to be a battler. I can’t find many advantages for the Minnesota Gophers who somehow got worse on offense this year. Minnesota will turn to Cole Kramer, a Sr. QB who barely played at all during his time here, which probably tells you all you need to know about his talent, when the QB play the last two years has been bad. Minnesota will have a hard time protectin him as Bowling Green is 9th in sack %, while Minnesota just 84th in protecting their QB. Bowling Green 20th in passing success rate, and they also check in 46th in defensive ypc.
I know PJ Fleck will be trying to motivate his team as a 5-7 team, and he will be out there running around with his tie like an idiot, but I really feel like the ship might be sinking for him. Bowling Green beat Minnesota in 2021, and they had a much worse team -0.6 ypp differential compared to Minnesota was +0.6, a net difference 1.2 per play. Bowling Green this season -0.1 vs. Minnesota -0.5, which is in favor of Bowling Green. Clearly a big game for Bowling Green for recruiting in Detroit, and wouldn’t it be amazing to knock off their second P5 team of the season having beaten Georgia Tech? They also played Michigan out of the Big Ten, which is not even something Minnesota can say. They hung with Michigan through 2 quarters trailing just 14-6 at the half. Bowling Green also #1 in turnovers forced per possession, which could be a problem for a Minnesota offense that ranks 127th in success rate.
