New Mexico State -3 1.1% Free
This is respect for Jerry Kill who clearly knows how to develop a roster and win games as a dog. This game he will be a small favorite, but the situation favors New Mexico State who has to be thrilled to be playing in a bowl game, while Fresno STate will be without their head coach Jeff Tedford who stepped away for health reasons. The game also is being played in Albuquerque, a short trip for New Mexico State, a team that has no problem winning on the road, winning at Auburn earlier in the season. Their offense is very difficult to defend as they are a top 10 rushing offense, but also a top 50 passing offense. They lost their game against LIberty when Pavia left the game in the third quarter, but he’s back and probably for this game.
This is a bad matchup for Fresno St as they’ll face a good running team, where they are 1-3 on the season. Their only win was a 7 point win over Boise State when they were in turmoil. A game where Boise basically played without their top 2 rushing threats in their QB Green and star RB Jeanty. New Mexico State’s biggest weakness is vs. the run, but I don’t think Fresno can take advantage as they rank 100th in ypc, and 90th in rushing success rate, and that’s against bad rushing defenses ranked on average 90th or 95th in rushing success rate defense.
