Navy +3 5 % play / Navy +130 0.5% play
Why is Navy the under dog when they have the better defense and the better stats? Last year they also had the better stats and lost in OT but out gained Army by 100 yards, and should have won the game. Navy's run defense 29th against an average opponent ranking 41, comapred to Army at 126 and 50. Last year Army's rushing offense ranked 31st in ypc against an average 61.8, but this year they are far worse ranking 73rd vs. 69, while Navy is actually around the same. Overall Army's #'s are far worse than a season ago, and these two teams are very much identical when we factor in the trench plays - power success, standard line yards, and stuff rate. Army averages 58.8 on offense +defense, while Navy averages 60.3, but Navy has faced the tougher schedule... So why is Navy a dog.
Last year they were 2.5 point favorite, this year Army beat Ari Force as an 18 point dog while Navy lost as as a 10.5 point dog and there has been a 5.5 point adjustment since those games, and I think that is incorrect, when you factor in how well these teams know each other. Navy has the advantage in % of posessions ending and forcing a turnover by substantial margin 29th and 4th compared to Army 106th and 124th. navy has the advantage in special teams efficieny 75th to 125th. To me this is a better Navy team, and we have a much worse Army team, that is -1.7 yards per play agaisnt an average -0.02 ypp differential opponent, while last year they were -0.2 vs. -0.38. While Navy can't win the Commander N Chief trophy they can play spoiler, and a win gets them to a bowl so it's a massive game for them too. Going to be a great game where every play matters, and I am excited to see it.
