Missouri is certainly not as bad as it showed last week in their 34-0 loss to Georgia as MIssouri turned the ball over 5 times. They had only turned the ball over 4 times before that game. I Look for them to bounce back here as they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following an ATS loss and 10-2 ATS following a SU loss. Gary Pinkel is a much better coach than Will Muschamp who is 4-11 ATS following a SU loss. I don't think his team plays for him and after a devastating loss to LSU last week we will surely find out if he's on his way out.
What got lost in Missouri's loss to Georgia last week was their defense that is just as good as Florida's. They were on the field for 42 minutes and still held Georgia in check. Florida's offense is just terrible led by Jeff Driskel who has a 102 QB Rating. I still trust Matty Mauk more who has more than twice the number of TD's and is completing more than 1 yards more per attempts. Missouri is just a bit better in red zone offense and defense and that will be the difference in my opinion.
Northwestern has turned their season around and could have won on the road last week if it weren't for a 100 yard kickoff return they allowed late in the 4th quarter after a brilliant 97 yard TD drive by Trevor Siemann. Minnesota only manged 274 yards as Northwestern's defense continues to play well. Northwestern can stop the run and I'm not surprised that Minnesota won last week at home coming off a bye when Northwestern was off two huge Big Ten wins. I think Northwestern has a good chance to bounce back against Nebraska who relies on the run too much. Nebraska has been running it 64% of the time with good reason they have the best RB int he country and they are averaging 6.22 ypc, but a closer look and they have only faced 1 top 50 run defense and that was Michigan State who they averaged 1.27 ypc against.
Tommy Armstrong just can't be the difference maker as he is completing just 51.9% of his passes and has a tendency to turn the ball over which is a big deal considering Northwestern has allowed 6 TD and has 9 interceptions and are ranked 23rd in opposing QB rating to go with their top 50 run defense. These two traditionally play in close games as Northwestern has lost some heart breakers the last few years including last year by a hail mary. The last 3 games have been decided by 7 points combined and I see no reason why this one won't come down to 1 possession.
