San Jose +125 3% ML Dog of the Week
UNLV has no motivation other than a 10th win, which they’ll get two more games after this game to accomplish as they’ll host Boise State for the Mountain West Title regardless.
With that aside I like this matchup for San Jose State as UNLV is a pass first team, andt hat’s the strength of this defense which ranks 49th in QB defense and that has come against a great schedule of opposing QB’s ranking 42nd in QB rating. San Jose STate does not turn the ball over ranking 13th in % of possessions ending in TO’s, which is important, because UNLV is +10 TO margin in their 9 win, and San Jose State just does not turn the ball over. San Jose State is also great in 3rd down offense ranking 23rd as they have a very balanced offense ranking 32nd in success rate, and top 60 in both passing and rushing. UNLV on the other hand is very much one dimensional ranking 104th in rushing success rate, and 19th in passing success rate. UNLV has not faced many top passing defense this year so it’s a major step up for this group. Meanwhile they also haven’t faced many quality passing offenses this year
A big difference in strength of schedule. UNLV got Wyoming at home and got Air Force at the right time the last two games, while San Jose State had USC, oregon State, road game at Toledo the best team in the MAC, Air Force at the wrong time, a road game at Boise. San Jose State’s average opponent ypp differential was a positive 0.13 compared with UNLV -0.45, San Jose State actually managed +0.7 compared to UNLV +0.5. When you factor in the schedule and the luck of playing certain teams at certain times, and the overall match up advantage I like San Jose State to win this game outright.
